AFC East Preview

Hello ladies and gents. It's time again for East Coast Bias to give you yet another NFL division run down. We have already completed the NFC Conference and begin the AFC with the AFC East.

When it comes to the AFC East it's not very hard to predict who will be number one. It's about as hard as predicting the plot of a "House" episode. The New England Patriots are the clear favorites after signing LB Adalius Thomas and acquiring the services of WR Randy Moss. The New York Jets did make strides last year with 1st year head coach, Eric Mangini and look to run with that success figuratively and literally, after signing RB Thomas Jones. The Miami Dolphins have been in the headlines all offseason because of their handling of current Oakland Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper and their head scratching selection of future PR/WR(?) Ted Ginn Jr. The Buffalo Bills saw CB Nate Clements leave in free agency, they traded LB Takeo Spikes for a guy who won't even play for them this season (DT Darwin Walker), and LB London Fletcher went to the Washington Redskins. So with all the additions and subtractions how will the AFC East play out?

1. New England Patriots - Last Year 12-4

It should be surprising to no one that the New England Patriots are the favorites in the AFC East. They are led at QB by infamous Tom Brady who last year did a lot with very little. Of Tom Brady's 24 passing touchdowns, 11 different receivers caught them. Even though the Patriots acquired Donte Stallworth from the Eagles and Randy Moss from the Oakland Raiders, expect Brady to continue to spread the ball around. Expect Tom Brady's passing number (3,529 passing yds) to increase however with both of these guys lining up on either side of him instead of Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney.

At running back the Patriots are expecting great things from Laurence Maroney. With the release of long tenured RB Corey Dillon (13 rushing TDs), Maroney is expected to carry the full load. There are questions however about his durability after injuring his shoulder last season that limited his playing time. Maroney was able to accumulate 745 yards rushing on 175 attempts and 6 rushing touchdowns. H]e also showed good hands out of the backfield and became a favorite target of Brady's. Don't expect this guy to cough up the ball either, only 2 fumbles last year.

Along the offensive line the Patriots have no stars but five quality linemen. They like Tom Brady rely more on athleticism and intelligence than size and raw strength. Veteran offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia, yes I mentioned an offensive line coach, has done a great job molding this line. The line averages less than five years of experience across the board and considering they only gave up 29 sacks, should only get better. Matt Light is the leader of this group and should provide quality leadership for the line.

As I mentioned before, the wide receiving corps has dramatically improved. Donte Stallworth comes over from the Philadelphia Eagles after only one season in which he caught 38 balls for 735 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has been injury plagued over his career so he could quickly become a non-factor if he get hurt, again. The most talked about move during the offseason had to be the trade for Randy Moss from the Oakland Raiders. Moss, who had been a perennial pro bowler while playing for the Minnesota Vikings, played 2 drama filled seasons for the lowly Oakland Raiders and became a cancer on the team. The chances of that happening on the Patriots? Zero. The Patriots also added little Wes Welker who played very consistently for the highly inconsistent Miami Dolphins last year. With Reche Caldwell as their 4th option at WR, they are deep at this position. Also look for a lot of TE Ben Watson this season as defenses will be focusing a lot of their attention on Moss and Stallworth thus leaving a LB on him. With a QB like Brady, expect him to take advantage of that match up, A LOT.

The 3-4 defense starts with a solid nose tackle, and the Patriots have one in big man Vince Wilfolk. A solid run-stopper, Norfolk was attributed with 41 solo tackles last year and will be expected to anchor the line again this season. Veteran defensive ends, Richard Seymour and Ty Warren are superb run stoppers for their position. Ty Warren recorded a career high 7.5 sacks last year while Seymour had what many consider a sub par season with only 4.0 sacks. With the addition of do it all Adalius Thomas at LB Seymour could see less double teams and once again become a force rushing the QB.

Speaking of Adalius Thomas, the New England Patriots NEEDED him. While the likes of Teddy Bruschi, Roosevelt Colvin, and Mike Vrabel are all solid players, they aren't getting any younger. Thomas breathes new life into this unit. While playing with the likes of Bart Scott and Ray Lewis in Baltimore, Thomas was still able to sack the QB 11 times. His energy will be palpable and with Bruschi having his picture next to the definition of leader, this unit is going to be a force to be reckoned with this year.

The secondary is probably the only question mark the Patriots have. Pro Bowl CB Asante Samuel, who had 10 INTs last season, is holding out for an extension and could miss the beginning of the season. While many people debate whether Samuel is a shut down corner, there's no question that the Patriots are better off with him than Chad Scott, who would've taken over for him if he hadn't blown out his knee prior to the season starting. 3rd year starter Ellis Hobbs is expected to mature into a solid corner but his 8.8 overall YPA tied him for 70th in the league last year. The addition of Brandon Meriweather should alleviate concerns at the S position but Rodney Harrison 's skills are declining and Eugene Wilson is coming off a year in which he only played 4 games.

Bottom Line: With the addition of Stallworth and Moss, Brady is finally going to have targets to throw to. Moss probably won't mirror his seasons as a Viking, but he will certainly be more productive catching balls from Mr. Brady than he did from Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks. (Before I move on, yes I know he had Deion Branch) On defense Adalius Thomas was, and I can't stress it enough, a huge addition for this 3-4 defense. The Patriots must stay healthy on defense if they are to make it to January. If all goes as it should, these guys are Super Bowl contenders and will dominate the AFC East. A real stretch, I know. Record 13-3 (5-1 vs. division)

2. New York Jets - 10-6

Chad Pennington, for the first time in his career, started all 16 games of the regular season. After 2 surgeries on his shoulder, Pennington had the perseverance to come back last season and have a solid season. He threw for 3,352 yards including 17 passing touchdowns. It was obvious however that he no longer has any arm strength to speak and was picked off 16 times. He is also not very agile in the pocket and was sacked in 15 out of 16 games. Don't look now but the 31 year old Pennington could be on his way out if he doesn't again have a good season. Former Oregon QB Kellen Clemens is waiting in the wings and could start as soon as next season should Pennington have a poor year. Also with Pennington's track record with staying healthy, Clemens could even start this year should Pennington go down.

Second year start D'Brickashaw Ferguson, along with right tackle Anthony Clement, gives the jets two good tackles who should provide ample protection for Pennington. Center Nick Mangold showed a lot as a rookie last season and should be a rock for this offensive line for a long time. Veteran guard Pete Kendall, who has expressed his displeasure with not getting an extension from the Jets, is currently holding out and could hurt the chemistry of this line. They only let up 34 sacks season, pretty good considering the immobility of Chad Pennington. They struggled on the ground however, only gaining a league-worst 3.5 yards per carry.

The Jets pulled the wool over the eyes of the Chicago Bears and stole Thomas Jones from them. All the Jets needed to give up was the 37th overall pick and in turn received Jones and the 63rd overall pick. The Bears went on to trade the 37th pick to the San Diego Chargers for some late round picks. But, enough about the Bears, the Jets are the ones who came out smelling like roses when this trade was done. Jones has rushed for 1,200+ yards the last 2 seasons and looks to stabilize the Jets running attack. Even with a running back by committee solution last year, the Jets placed 20th in the NFL in rushing while Leon Washington and Cedric Houston shared carries.

The WRs include consistent performer Laveranues Coles, who resurrected his career last year with 91 receptions and 1,098 yards receiving last year. If you asked most people however who was their big threat at the WR position,they would tell you Jerricho Cotchery. The 2nd year starter had career highs in yards (961), receptions (82), touchdowns (6) last year, and the most incredible reception of the 2006 season. Beyond these two performers the Jets don't have a lot of depth at this position ( Tim Dwight and Justin McCareins) and if either of these guys were to go down with an injury it would severely limit the Jets offense.

The defense is still coming together after Mangini installed a 3-4 defense last season. The defensive line consists of converted OLB to DE Bryan Thomas, who registered a career high 8.5 sacks last season. Even at 30, Shaun Ellis is still a solid DE who sacked the quarterback 5.0 times last year. Anchoring the middle is former 1st round pick, Dewayne Robertson. Kimo von Oelhoffen, who arrived from the Pittsburgh Steelers, is a solid DT, who will also get time at DE, and gives the Jets some depth at both positions.

With Jonathan Vilma at LB, the Jets have a great cornerstone for their defense. Another youngster should also contribute to this defense. Former Michigan product, and 1st year starter David Harris (whom I wanted the Eagles to pick after passing on Paul Posluszny) should immediately become a factor for this defense and provide Vilma with some relief so he can roam around. While Bryan Thomas is listed as a DE he will still see time at OLB and come off the edge as a pass rusher. Victor Hobson and David Bowens round out the rest of the linebackers. Both are solid performers but don't expect anything spectacular from either player.

Finally, the secondary is made up of solid safeties. Erik Coleman, a 3rd year starter, is coming off his 3rd consecutive 100+ tackles season. While a great open field tackler and solid run support safety, he is however a liability in deep coverage. Kerry Rhodes is coming off his best season at safety in which he had 5.0 sacks, 99 tackles, and 4 interceptions. Look for Rhodes to emerge as one of the best safeties in the AFC. The drafting of Darrelle Revis instantly upgrades the Jets CB situation in which Andre Dyson (4 INTs) was the number 1 guy last year. He will move over for Revis and become the number 2 guy for the Jets.

Bottom Line: The New York Jets are coming off a season in which they overachieved under the tutelage of Eric Man"genius". With the addition of Thomas Jones at RB, the offense has the chance to be a lot more consistent than they were last year. It should especially help Chad Pennington. The defense will only be better this year now that they had a year with the 3-4 system. It will be hard for the Jets to improve over last season's record, even with the upgrades during the offseason. But with Eric Mangini as their head coach, the Jets could see playoff success in the future. Record 10-6 (5-1 vs. division)

3. Miami Dolphins - Last Season 6-10

Coming off a season in which he suffered a frightening concussion, Trent Green is poised to take over the starting quarterback that Daunte Culpepper vacated this year in dramatic fashion. Trent Green is coming off an 8 game season in which he passed for only 7 touchdowns, threw 9 interceptions, and accumulated 1,342 passing yards . The Dolphins are obviously expecting a lot from the 37 year old quarterback, possibly a little too much. If Green were to go down though the Dolphins have depth at QB with Cleo Lemon(who's is giving Green a run for his money) and 2007 2nd round pick, John Beck.

The Dolphins will have a brand new offensive line when the 2007 season starts. Last year, the offensive line gave up 21 sacks in the first four games of 2006. If that's hard to believe, just ask Daunte Culpepper if it's true. After that disaster the Dolphins moved left tackle L.J. Shelton to right guard and right guard Damion McIntosh to left tackle. McIntosh and former starting guard Jeno James are now gone and will now be auditioning players for four positions. Experts and scouts say that this line will be strong for the running game but will take time to become a cohesive unit to give Trent Green ample time to get rid of the ball.

The Dolphins finished the 2006 season with the 22nd-ranked run offense in the NFL. Ronnie Brown looks to improve the 1,008 rushing yards he accumulated last year. With new coach Cam Cameron, Brown most certainly should considering Cameron has stated he wants to rush the ball more. In 3 of the 5 games when Ronnie rushed the ball 20 or more times he gained more than 100 yards rushing. So it would be safe to say that the more Brown gets the ball, the more effective he will be for the Dolphins. Ronnie Brown needs to breakout this season and under the tutelage of Cameron, he will get the opportunity to.

Chris Chambers, while overrated, is still a solid receiver who had 59 receptions, 677 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns. The Dolphins did lose Wes Welker but coaches are really high on 2nd year player, Derek Hagan. Look for Hagan to emerge as the Dolphins number 2 receiver as Marty Booker, who is still a solid player, declines as he is only getting older. The real wild card in all of this is Ted Ginn Jr. The Miami Dolphins were highly scrutinized for their pick of Ginn 9th overall. Many though that they would pick Brady Quinn and make him the QB of the future. Ginn Jr. is still nursing a foot injury he received while playing at Ohio State but coaches are high on him, especially his tremendous speed. Count on him being a return man in addition to being the 3rd option at wide receiver. Should he evolve into a quality wide receiver, Green could have a good bunch of WRs to throw to. And let me stress GOOD.

The Miami Dolphins defensive line is anchored in the middle by Vonnie Holliday and Keith Traylor. Both players, especially Traylor (17th season), are on the decline, even though Vonnie Holliday had the best season of his career last year with 7.0 sacks. It helps though when you have Jason Taylor running off the edge. Jason Taylor enters his 11th season and is as hungry as ever. His 13.5 sacks last season led the team and even had 2 interceptions, one taken back for a TD. Third year player Matt Roth is a grinder and what he lacks in athleticism, he makes up for in effort.

Channing Crowder. Zach Thomas. Joey Porter. These three players will anchor one of the best line backing corps in football. Entering his 3rd year with the Dolphins, look for Crowder to emerge as the team's best linebacker. That's saying a lot considering he is lining up next to Zach Thomas on Sunday. Thomas is coming off a career year in tackles (165) but is 33 years old. Entering his 12th year as a Dolphin, look for Thomas to have another good year but signs of age will become apparent. The Dolphins huge splash this offseason was their signing of Joey Porter. Porter registered 7 sacks last season but for the 3rd time in 2 years, had to have surgery on his knee. So considering that, it will be interesting if Porter can hold up and stay healthy this year. If he does, this front seven could be really scary.

Yeremiah Bell leads the Dolphins secondary into the 2007 season. Playing from the SS position, he is a great run stopper and always seems to be around the ball. Don't let the fact that he had no interceptions fool you, this guy is good. FS Renaldo Hill is a solid player for a guy who's undersized for his position (5'11" 190lbs.). While 2nd year starter and former 1st round pick Jason Allen had trouble adjusting to the Dolphins defensive scheme, look for him to contribute considerably this season. Will Allen and Andre Goodmanare both solid corner and will begin the season as the Dolphins starting corner backs but I expect Jason Allen to slip in sometime during the year and take over.

Bottom Line: While Trent Green will bring consistency to the QB position, he is not obviously, a long term solution. Should he get hurt the Dolphins are in serious trouble. Cam Cameron is hoping that Ronnie Brown lives up to expectations and becomes a bona fide number 1 RB. While the defense will of course be great again this year (Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas), the offense just won't be consistent enough to get the Dolphins above .500. Sorry Dolphins fans, yet another losing year and no playoffs. The drought continues. Record 5-11 (1-5 vs. division)

4. Buffalo Bills - Last Season 7-9

J.P. Losman is coming off a great year in which he had a 84.9 QB rating, 19 passing touchdowns, and 3,051 yards passing. Confident that he is the man in Buffalo, Losman is poised to have a great season, especially considering he has Lee Evans to throw to. The maturation of the Losman is key to the Bill success now and in the future. He will be a top 10 quarterback this year. You heard it here first ladies and gentleman! Then again, that's not really going out on a limb eh?...

The Bills offensive line is anchored by center Melvin Fowler and left tackle Jason Peters. With the exception of guard Derrick Dockery, the other two starters, right tackle Terrance Pennington and guard Duke Preston haven't started a full season. Like the Dolphins, this line will have to get together and become a strong unit, especially after giving up 47 sacks. The Bill also only averaged 3.7 yards per carry, and with rookie Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, they will be asked to make life easier for the rookie.

Speaking of the maturation of J.P.Losman, the running game will be a big part of that. The Bills traded away Willis McGahee to the Baltimore Ravens leaving a LARGE hole at running back. The Bills addressed that however with the 1st round pick of Marshawn Lynch out of California. While playing at Cal, he displayed tremendous burst, elusiveness, and cutback ability. Coming out of college, a lot of pro scouts compare him to a former TCU product, LaDainian Tomlinson. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not comparing Lynch to present day LT. I am only comparing them coming out of college. Only time will tell to see whether or not this comparison holds true. And I'm sure the Bills are crossing their toes and fingers that it is.

At wide receiver the Bills have Lee Evans. Really, anyone else on their depth chart at wide receiver are pretty inconsequential. Evans, who has never had a great supporting cast, and only recently had a decent quarterback, is a game breaker. I would argue he is the Steve Smith of the AFC. For preview purposes only I will reveal the rest of the Bill wide receiving depth chart. Peerless Price, whose decision to leave the Bills in 2002 was the worst decision of his life, is the team's 2nd receiver. Not much is expected from the 30 year old who has never been a consistent performer. Josh Reed is probably the most reliable pass catcher other than Evans on the team and isn't scared to go across the middle. He is however not a deep threat and has problems creating space between himself and the corner when jammed at the line.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills have a solid defensive line. Aaron Schobel has averaged 10 sacks a season over his 6 year career (14.0 last year) and his partner in crime, Chris Kelsay (5.5 sacks), give the Bills a great 1-2 punch on the end. Backup DE Ryan Denney added 6.0 sacks in reserve and will be crucial to getting pressure on the quarterback this season and give valuable rest to Schobel. The interior line is made up of 6 year veteran Larry Tripplett and undrafted 2nd year player, Kyle Williams. Rookie John McCargo was limited to only 5 games last year due to injury but will provide valuable depth this year if he stays healthy.

After losing London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes the Bills had two big holes to fill. They filled one of those holes with the 2nd round steal of Paul Posluszny. He will immediately start at middle linebacker and be expected to make an immediate contribution while adjusting to the NFL. It shouldn't be too hard considering while at Penn State he adjusted just fine when moved from outside linebacker to middle linebacker. Flanking Paul will be two other young players. Keith Ellison (23) enters his second year while Angelo Crowell (25) enters his fifth. Both players showed promise last year and with the addition of Posluszny, this group could be a surprise this season.

The Buffalo Bills secondary of course took a huge blow with the departure of Nate Clements. Pass defense was one of the strengths of this defensive unit (7th overall in pass defense) so to lose Clements will be felt. The new number one corner for the Bills will be 4th year starter Terrence McGee who is coming off his first season with no interceptions. The Bills did sign former Atlanta Falcon Jason Webster to solidify the corner position and provide some depth. Ashton Youboty (officially the funniest name in the NFL) could be a surprise at corner and should get a lot more playing time with the departure of Nate Clements. At safety the Bills have two 2nd year starters in Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson. Both of these guys could turn into quite a duo but will have to become more well rounded. Whitner is a strong run stopper and Simpson better in coverage. So while they compliment each other, the Bills would like to see them excel in both regards.

Bottom Line: The Bills could have traded places with the Dolphins had their schedule not been so tough. Here are their first 5 games of their season: Denver, at Pittsburgh, at New England, New York Jets, Dallas. The rest of it isn't any more promising. They could realistically be 0-11 entering week 13. I feel sorry you guys, really I do. J.P. Losman's maturation, Lee Evan's staying healthy, and Marshawn Lynch's first year contributions will be the key to the Bill success, although even if all things go well, this team's depth, especially on defense and talent level just doesn't stack up against the big boys in the AFC East. Record 4-12 (1-5 vs. division)